Key August 2008 survey results
Business conditions & confidence (and capacity utilisation) stabilise around recent lows.
But all sectors, other than mining, still deteriorating (albeit retail confidence also off lows).
Business sees no improvement in prospect, while forward orders continue to fall.
Survey implies demand in Q3 2008 around 1¼% (annualised) & non-farm GDP around 2%.
Wages growth unchanged, but inflation still high on the back of higher purchase costs.
Global forecasts broadly unchanged (but weaker near term outlook for Europe, UK, Japan).
Local GDP forecasts lowered to 2½% in 2008 (base effects) but unchanged in 2009 at 2¼%.
RBA focus remains on redressing overly tight policy. We still see downside risks to growth and NAB expects another 25 point cut before end 2008 and 100 points over the next year.
|
|
|
