Key survey results
-
Business confidence falls to lowest level since Australia was exiting the 1990 recession;
-
Business conditions (i.e. outcomes) also sharply lower - consistent with domestic demand growth slowing to 2-2½% by mid 2008 (lowest level since late 2001);
-
Near and medium term expectations also revised markedly lower - including investment intentions and forward orders. Interest sensitive sectors bearing the brunt;
-
Capacity utilisation and labour market tightness starting to ease. Wage pressures unchanged but inflation momentum still high - driven by rising purchase costs;
-
Global GDP forecasts for 2009 revised lower to 2¾% (from 3.1%) - significantly lower growth forecast for the USA in 2009 (1%) and recovery delayed till late 2009;
-
Key drivers of lower growth in 2009 include higher oil prices, weaker asset (equity / house) prices and potentially tougher financial conditions (including credit rationing);
-
Australian GDP forecasts for 2009 lowered to 2¼% for 2009 (but unchanged at 2¾% in 2008). 2010 also subdued. RBA on hold in 2008 - but to cut significantly in 2009/10.
Download NAB Quarterly Business Survey - Jun 08 (PDF, 835KB)
|
|
|
