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Key November 2008 survey results
Business confidence edges down to a new record low (including the 1990/91 recession).
Business conditions sharply down again - to levels last seen in late 1992.
Forward orders fall sharply (again) to 1991 lows and capacity utilisation falls significantly.
Medium term expectations also sharply lower - including lower capital & hiring plans.
Survey implies negative growth in domestic demand and non-farm GDP in Q4 2008.
NAB's measure of credit availability suggests little change in credit availability.
Confidence down everywhere - as are conditions, with the exception of mining & transport.
Global forecasts for 2009 cut to 1¾% (from 2.4%) with sharply lower growth in USA & Europe.
Australian GDP forecasts cut due to the lower start point in Q4 2008 and weaker global growth. We now expect growth in 2009 of only 0.5% - implying recession in the non- farm economy (at least).
We also expect more fiscal policy action, weaker labour markets and an even more aggressive RBA. We now forecast the RBA to cut rates to 3% in early 2009 (previously 3¾%).
Download NAB Monthly Business Survey - Nov 08
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