Monthly Business Survey - January 2009

Key January 2009 survey results

Business confidence returns to record lows after December bounce (but pre most recent package). 

Business conditions down 5 points - half reversing the December bounce. 

Forward orders & employment remain around recessionary lows, while capital spending and capacity utilisation fall further.  Exports also sharply lower.  Falls, by industry, very broad based.

Survey implies around no growth (or slight falls) in domestic demand in early Q1 2009.

Credit availability broadly unchanged - as proportion of firms not wanting finance, rises again. 

Global forecasts for 2009 unchanged at ½% reflecting dreadful results globally in Q4 - and no improvement till late 2009.  G3 economies fall around -2% in 2009 & Chinese growth slows to 6¼%.

Australian forecasts also unchanged.  GDP expected to decline by ¼% in 2009 - a moderate recession.  No aggressive kick back in growth in 2010.  NAB more pessimistic than Govt (2009/10).

RBA - with a similar inflation outlook as NAB - to cut rates to 2% (no change in forecast) by mid year as unemployment rises.



Download NAB Monthly Business Survey - Jan 09