NAB's forecasts for growth are largely unchanged following the release of the Q2 national accounts, and the bank still expects a gradual rise in the unemployment rate.
Global outlook back on a war footing: Global Forward View - NAB
22 July 2026
Key points
- Global growth eased in Q1 and another modest outcome looks likely in Q2.
- We expect a pick-up in H2. This depends on the latest US-Iran hostilities being temporary, but there is a high degree of uncertainty as to how this will play out. Growth continues to be supported by AI and the broader tech sector; particularly in China, other Asian economies (e.g. Korea, Taiwan, Japan) and the US.
- Recent comments by Fed speakers confirm that there is little tolerance for upside core inflation surprises (against the expectation that inflation will ease in H2).
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