Global outlook back on a war footing: Global Forward View

22 July 2026

Economy and Markets

• Global growth eased in Q1 and another modest outcome looks likely in Q2.
• We expect a pick-up in H2. This depends on the latest US-Iran hostilities being temporary, but there is a high degree of uncertainty as to how this will play out. Growth continues to be supported by AI and the broader tech sector; particularly in China, other Asian economies (e.g. Korea, Taiwan, Japan) and the US.
• Recent comments by Fed speakers confirm that there is little tolerance for upside core inflation surprises (against the expectation that inflation will ease in H2). 

Read the full July 2026 Global Forward View Report.