NAB Business Survey July 2026

11 August 2026
Economy and Markets  Business Banking

• Business confidence fell 1 point in July to -6 index points after three months of gains

• Business conditions rose 1 point to +4 index points, supported by modest improvements in profitability and employment

• Capacity utilisation rose strongly to 83.0%, while forward orders fell back to -3 index points

The rebound in business confidence stalled in July as Middle East uncertainty and oil price volatility continued to weigh on sentiment, while business conditions showed signs of stabilising after weakening earlier in the year. The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed confidence down 1 point to -6 index points, with conditions rising 1 point to +4 index points.

NAB Head of Australian Economics Gareth Spence said the survey showed activity had slowed over the first half of 2026, unwinding much of last year’s momentum and supporting NAB’s view that the RBA would hold on Tuesday afternoon. 

“The slowing in activity in recent months was broadly expected, and the survey is showing some easing in capacity pressures. That points to a more stable outlook for monetary policy in the near term,” Mr Spence said.

“After rebounding over the past three months, confidence dipped slightly in July and remains well below early-2026 levels. How this flows through to hiring and investment will be an important watch point over the next six months. 

“Conditions held up in July, edging slightly higher, but they remain below their long-run average. The survey suggests activity has stabilised after softening earlier in the year, with employment and profitability improving modestly, although forward orders and confidence continue to point to a more cautious outlook for businesses.”  

Cost and price growth rose in July, although rates remain well below the pace seen at the peak of the Middle East conflict. Labour cost growth rose to its highest level since January 2025, while purchase cost and product price growth are at or above their pre-conflict levels.

Business conditions remain below average, with profitability and employment improving modestly and trading conditions unchanged. Capacity utilisation rose 0.9 percentage points to 83.0%.

Forward orders fell 3 points in the month to -3 index points, their second-lowest level since September 2025, while capital expenditure intentions rose to +3 index points but remained well below the levels recorded earlier in the year.

NAB Group Executive Business and Private Banking, Andrew Auerbach said the survey reflected the balancing act many businesses are managing right now.

"While global uncertainty remains, many business owners are focused on what they can control, whether that's improving productivity, managing costs or finding new growth opportunities,” Mr Auerbach said.

"Businesses remain cautious about the outlook, but many are still busy and looking for opportunities as they take a careful approach to hiring and investment."

Read the full NAB Monthly Business Survey - July 2026

The NAB Monthly Business Survey provides one of Australia's leading measures of business conditions and confidence. If your business meets the eligibility criteria below, we'd love to hear from you. 

Your business must: 

• employ over 35 people;
• operate in an industry other than agriculture; and
• be privately owned