A triple threat of higher interest rates, global uncertainty and elevated fuel and diesel costs is weighing down business confidence, according to the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
NAB Housing Monitor September 2026 - NAB
3 September 2026
Economy and Markets Housing
Key points
- National dwelling prices fell 0.9% in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of falls. Meanwhile, the eight-capital city index fell 1.1% mom and is now 4.6% below its peak.
- Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead declines. Sydney prices fell 1.4% mom and are 7.1% below their recent peak, while Melbourne prices declined 1.1% mom to be 6.5% below their respective peak.
- Price declines have broadened across the mid-sized capitals, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide now 2.7%, 3.2% and 1.6% off their peaks respectively.
- Housing turnover is clearly slowing, while the median days on market has risen to 38, the highest level since October 2022.
- The value of new housing loan commitments fell by 5.2% qoq in Q2, led by a 10.2% decline in investor lending, but remain 6.8% higher over the year.
- We continue to see prices across the eight-capital cities declining 5% over this year, led by ~10% declines in Sydney and Melbourne, with 2-4% declines across the mid-sized capitals. However, we see risks to the downside, should rates move higher as we expect.
- Rents growth remains elevated but has shown some tentative signs of a slowing alongside a modest increase in vacancy rates.
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