NAB's forecasts for growth are largely unchanged following the release of the Q2 national accounts, and the bank still expects a gradual rise in the unemployment rate.
NAB Housing Monitor September 2026 - NAB
3 September 2026
Economy and Markets Housing
Key points
- National dwelling prices fell 0.9% in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of falls. Meanwhile, the eight-capital city index fell 1.1% mom and is now 4.6% below its peak.
- Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead declines. Sydney prices fell 1.4% mom and are 7.1% below their recent peak, while Melbourne prices declined 1.1% mom to be 6.5% below their respective peak.
- Price declines have broadened across the mid-sized capitals, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide now 2.7%, 3.2% and 1.6% off their peaks respectively.
- Housing turnover is clearly slowing, while the median days on market has risen to 38, the highest level since October 2022.
- The value of new housing loan commitments fell by 5.2% qoq in Q2, led by a 10.2% decline in investor lending, but remain 6.8% higher over the year.
- We continue to see prices across the eight-capital cities declining 5% over this year, led by ~10% declines in Sydney and Melbourne, with 2-4% declines across the mid-sized capitals. However, we see risks to the downside, should rates move higher as we expect.
- Rents growth remains elevated but has shown some tentative signs of a slowing alongside a modest increase in vacancy rates.
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