NAB Economics' forecasts are largely unchanged, expecting a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
Patience required: Australian Forward View August 2026 - NAB
21 August 2026
Economy and Markets
Key points
- We expect a small positive for Q2 GDP growth (released in early Sept). We expect the detail of the accounts to support the narrative of some slowing in growth in H1 but also to reflect the fact that the impact of the Middle East has been less than initially feared thus far.
- Our forecasts are largely unchanged; we expect a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
- We continue to see the RBA on hold through 2026 and the next move in rates to be down, expecting a gradual normalisation in policy from mid 2027.
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