NAB Economics' forecasts are largely unchanged, expecting a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
The Forward View Australia December 2025: missing the approach - NAB
18 December 2025
Economy and Markets
Economic outlook and trends
- The economy looks to be ending 2025 with private sector growth strong and the labour market healthy.
- Inflation is expected to track above 3% for a number of quarters with the Q4 trimmed mean likely to surprise the RBA again.
- We now expect rates to rise in H1 2026, in a modest recalibration of policy.
For the full detail, read the report here (PDF, 1MB).
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