NAB Monetary Policy Update - NAB now expect hikes in March and May

11 March 2026
Interest Rates

Key points

• We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak)
• The starting point of robust growth, a too-tight labour market and too-high inflation already supported further tightening.
• New upside pressure on inflation tips the balance in favour of an additional increase.
• Much will depend on the trajectory of oil prices and the domestic data flow, and we see two-sided risks around our new central case for a 4.35% peak.
• We continue to expect gradual easing back towards more neutral levels from H2 2027.

For further detail, please see the latest NAB Monetary Policy Update (PDF, 437KB).