NAB revises interest rate forecast, expects RBA to hold for longer

24 September 2025 
Interest Rates

NAB Economists have today revised their interest rate outlook following August’s CPI data, now expecting the RBA to hold at 3.6% until May—replacing earlier forecasts of cuts in November and February.

Key points:

• NAB now see the RBA on hold at 3.6% until May (previously cuts in November and February).
• August CPI data points to a 0.9%-1.0% qoq outcome for Q3 trimmed mean, which would be a 0.3ppt upside surprise to current RBA forecasts.
• The detail shows that market services inflation is significantly hotter than expected.
• For the RBA, this means considerably less certainty that inflation has settled near 2.5% and highlights the likelihood that it will take a period of modestly restrictive policy for inflation to settle at 2.5%.

For further detail, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update (PDF, 112KB).