NAB Economics' forecasts are largely unchanged, expecting a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
Forward View Australia: March 2026 - Too many shocks too little slack - NAB
23 March 2026
Economy and Markets
Multiple shocks impact outlook
Too many shocks too little slack
- The economy ended 2025 in a strong position though activity indicators in 2026 have been a little more mixed.
- Inflation and capacity pressures remain evident, and the RBA will need to see activity slow to build comfort on inflation.
- We see the RBA increasing rates again in May, taking the cash rate to a peak of 4.35% and remaining on hold until mid-2027.
Uncertainty remains extremely elevated, with the supply disruption in the Middle East adding sharply to near term inflation and creating risks to both inflation and growth.
Read the full report: Forward View Australia: March 2026 (PDF, 1MB).
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