Australia’s latest inflation figures came in below expectations, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank ahead of its next rates decision. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld discusses what the data means for interest rates and the inflation outlook.
Forward View Australia: March 2026 - Too many shocks too little slack - NAB
23 March 2026
Economy and Markets
Multiple shocks impact outlook
Too many shocks too little slack
- The economy ended 2025 in a strong position though activity indicators in 2026 have been a little more mixed.
- Inflation and capacity pressures remain evident, and the RBA will need to see activity slow to build comfort on inflation.
- We see the RBA increasing rates again in May, taking the cash rate to a peak of 4.35% and remaining on hold until mid-2027.
Uncertainty remains extremely elevated, with the supply disruption in the Middle East adding sharply to near term inflation and creating risks to both inflation and growth.
Read the full report: Forward View Australia: March 2026 (PDF, 1MB).
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