NAB Economics' forecasts are largely unchanged, expecting a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
Forward View Global - April 2026: The Strait of uncertainty - NAB
23 April 2026
Economy and Markets
Outlook shaped by uncertainty
- The course of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, and its impact on energy production, as well as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, remains central to the global economic outlook.
- Global growth forecast for 2026 have been lowered modestly (to 3.1% from 3.2%), reflecting higher oil prices and weaker than expected activity in the US and euro zone, partly offset by resilience in China.
- The forecasts assume that oil prices average around $US100 a barrel before easing, but this depends on improved shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside, increasing pressure on growth and keeping central banks on a more cautious policy path,
- Net energy importers such as Japan, India and parts of Europe potentially face the largest growth headwinds, thought policy measures may limit near-term impacts.
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