Business confidence continued to recover in June as concerns about the economic impact of Middle East tensions eased and cost pressures proved less severe than initially feared, according to the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey.
Forward View Global - April 2026: The Strait of uncertainty - NAB
23 April 2026
Economy and Markets
Outlook shaped by uncertainty
- The course of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, and its impact on energy production, as well as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, remains central to the global economic outlook.
- Global growth forecast for 2026 have been lowered modestly (to 3.1% from 3.2%), reflecting higher oil prices and weaker than expected activity in the US and euro zone, partly offset by resilience in China.
- The forecasts assume that oil prices average around $US100 a barrel before easing, but this depends on improved shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside, increasing pressure on growth and keeping central banks on a more cautious policy path,
- Net energy importers such as Japan, India and parts of Europe potentially face the largest growth headwinds, thought policy measures may limit near-term impacts.
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