A triple threat of higher interest rates, global uncertainty and elevated fuel and diesel costs is weighing down business confidence, according to the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
Forward View Global - April 2026: The Strait of uncertainty - NAB
23 April 2026
Economy and Markets
Outlook shaped by uncertainty
- The course of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, and its impact on energy production, as well as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, remains central to the global economic outlook.
- Global growth forecast for 2026 have been lowered modestly (to 3.1% from 3.2%), reflecting higher oil prices and weaker than expected activity in the US and euro zone, partly offset by resilience in China.
- The forecasts assume that oil prices average around $US100 a barrel before easing, but this depends on improved shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside, increasing pressure on growth and keeping central banks on a more cautious policy path,
- Net energy importers such as Japan, India and parts of Europe potentially face the largest growth headwinds, thought policy measures may limit near-term impacts.
Click the link below to read the full report:
Related Articles
Contact us
Media Enquiries
For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on +61 3 7035 5015