NAB Economics' forecasts are largely unchanged, expecting a gradual moderation in inflation and unemployment to drift higher alongside a period of below trend growth.
NAB’s April Monthly Business Survey steady as she goes - NAB
13 May 2025
Economy and Markets
Business conditions remain stable
Results from NAB’s Monthly Business Survey indicate business conditions and confidence measures remained relatively steady in April 2025.
However, both measures remain weak relative to average levels, highlighting the risk that the economy is struggling to maintain the pick-up in momentum seen in the last quarter of 2024.
NAB’s economists said survey results showed business conditions eased slightly, with significant declines in mining and transport & utilities, reversing gains seen in March.
Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said: “The decline in business conditions was driven by weaker profitability. This aligned with higher purchase cost growth and weaker trading conditions reported in April.”
Business confidence improved slightly during the month but remains negative and below its long run average. Confidence by industry was mixed and remains weakest in retail and wholesale.
Dr Auld said the timing of the survey likely had an impact on the results.
“The survey was fielded a few weeks after the initial tariff chaos in early April which may explain the relatively steady conditions and confidence measures,” she said.
Read the full monthly business report for April here (PDF, 284KB).
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