Property professionals see higher rents and lower house prices post-Budget: NAB Q2 2026 Residential Property Survey

22 July 2026
Economy and Markets  Housing

• Property professionals surveyed after the Federal Budget expect recent tax changes to lead to lower house prices and reduced investor activity, but rental growth expectations have increased.

• House prices are now expected to fall 2.5% over the next 12 months, while rental growth expectations have lifted to 3.9%.

• Construction costs remain the biggest barrier to new housing supply, cited by 77% of property professionals

Australia’s property professionals expect weaker house prices but stronger rental growth as supply constraints continue to limit new housing construction, according to the latest NAB Residential Property Survey. 

The survey was conducted between 26 May and 23 June, after changes to taxation arrangements for investor housing were announced in the Federal Budget.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said the survey provided timely insight into how the sector expects the housing market to respond following the Federal Budget.

“Respondents are pointing to a clear direction of travel, with softer price expectations, stronger rental growth expectations and a pullback in investor activity.  

“These expectations matter because housing is an important driver of both household finances and the broader economic outlook,” Dr Auld said.

The survey shows the NAB Residential Property Index fell sharply in the June quarter, down to +14 from +58, taking sentiment back below its long-run average of +22 after five consecutive quarters of above-average outcomes. 

At the same time, property professionals revised down their expectations for house prices, with prices now forecast to fall 2.5% over the next 12 months, compared with expected growth of 2.1% over the coming year in the March quarter. Expectations for rental growth over the next year rose to 3.9%, up from 3.1% in the previous quarter. 

Construction costs continue to be the main barrier to starting new housing developments, cited by 77% of property professionals, up from 65% in the previous quarter. Delays getting planning permits remained the second-greatest concern at 45%, while concern about interest rates rose to 39.6%. 

The survey also found local investor activity fell in both new and established housing markets. In new housing, the share of sales to local investors fell to 14.8%, down from 19.9% in the March quarter. In established housing, the share of sales to local investors fell to 13.7%, down from 19.8%. 

Dr Auld said the findings highlighted cross currents in the housing market.

“With softer price expectations on the one hand and ongoing pressure from rents and construction costs on the other, housing-related inflation dynamics are more complicated than simply looking at house prices alone,” Dr Auld said.

Read the full Q2 2026 NAB Residential Property Survey.